Latin America Has a Window. Our Logistics Will Decide Whether We Use It.

For as long as I have worked in this industry, Latin America has been described as a region of potential. It is an easy word to use and a hard one to turn into results. But something is different this time. The world is reorganizing the way it moves goods. Conflict around world, the drought restrictions we saw in the Panama Canal, trade tensions between the largest economies and a broader push to bring production closer to consumers have all changed the map. Ships are sailing longer routes and taking on more risk. A vessel that spends an extra two weeks going around Africa is a vessel that is not available for anyone else during that time. Effective capacity gets tighter, and freight becomes more volatile. 

In that context, the Americas look different. From Mexico down to the southern tip of the continent, we have food, energy, minerals and fertilizers, and we sit close to the largest consumer market in the world. We are not in the middle of the conflicts that are disrupting other routes. For companies trying to build supply chains that are shorter and more predictable, this region is no longer a second option. It is a logical one. I am convinced the opportunity is real. What worries me is a simpler question: are we ready for it? 

The Colombian Case 

I will start with my own country, because it is the one I know best and because it illustrates a problem many of our neighbors share. In Colombia, roughly 89% of cargo moves by road, on trucks. Around 10% moves by rail, and about 95% of that rail volume is coal heading to ports in the north of the country. In practice, rail plays almost a minimum role for the rest of the economy. River transport accounts for about 1%, even though the Magdalena River runs close to 1,500 kilometers through the middle of the country. 

The result shows up in the numbers. According to the a recent National Logistics Survey by Colombia’s National Planning Department (DNP), logistics accounts for 15.6% of the value of a product. In OECD economies, that figure is usually between 8% and 10%. Put simply, before a Colombian product competes on quality or price, it has already lost a significant part of its margin just getting to the port. Colombia is not an exception. If we map the region, we find several countries with the same profile: heavy dependence on road transport, underused rivers and railways, and ports that carry the full weight of the system’s inefficiencies. 

Where the Gap Becomes Visible: The Port 

The port is where all of this becomes visible. It is the point where the inland supply chain meets the ocean, and every weakness upstream eventually turns into a ship waiting at anchor. Colombia faces a specific challenge here. Most port concessions expire in 2033, and there is still no clarity on what will happen afterwards. No operator will commit to major investments in berths, equipment or storage if there is not enough time left to recover them. That is a rational decision, but its consequences are real. In dry bulk, and especially in grain, operations have slowed down and efficiency has dropped. 

At the same time, demand has not waited. Colombian grain imports, which used to grow at 4 to 5% per year, have grown at close to 15% annually over the last two years. That is more than two million additional tons arriving at ports that did not add capacity to receive them. The outcome is longer waiting times, higher demurrage and a supply chain that becomes more expensive with every day a vessel spends at anchor. 

There are reasons for cautious optimism. The new administration has signaled its intention to support the sector and provide the legal certainty that long-term investment requires. That would be a necessary first step. But certainty alone does not build capacity. It only makes investment possible. 

Capacity Is a System, Not a Single Asset 

After many years in port agency, I have come to a conclusion that may sound obvious but is often overlooked: berth productivity depends on what happens behind the berth. A ship rarely waits because the crane is too slow. It waits because the cargo has nowhere to go. When warehouses and yards near the port are full, discharge slows down, the berth stays occupied longer and the next vessel joins the queue. Any disruption, whether a road closure, a demand peak or a natural event, goes straight into the line-up. But port storage is only one piece. Real capacity is the sum of three things working together: the transport that moves cargo out of the port, the storage at and around the terminal, and the storage at the customer’s plant. When one of them fails, the pressure moves to the others and, sooner or later, to the ship. 

This is where rail and river make a difference that goes beyond freight cost. A barge convoy on the Magdalena or a train heading inland is, in practice, storage in motion. Every day the cargo spends in transit is a day it is not occupying a warehouse at the port, and that frees space for the next vessel. Trucks are flexible, but they move cargo in small lots and depend entirely on the condition of the roads. That is why I believe the only real guarantee of efficiency in cost and time is to manage capacity as a whole: transport, port storage and customer storage, connected through an intermodal system that moves cargo quickly and at a reasonable cost. 

Thinking Regionally 

Intermodality cannot be a purely national conversation. If Latin America wants to take advantage of this moment, it needs to start thinking as a logistics region. That means reviving rivers and railways with private participation, so trucks are not the only option. It means developing short sea services between our countries, so a cargo of grain, fertilizer or minerals can move from one Latin American port to another without depending on long-haul routes and their volatility. And it means aligning procedures and standards across borders, so cargo spends less time on paperwork and more time moving. 

The goal is not only to export more to the rest of the world. It is also to allow the countries in the region to supply each other with the products and commodities they need. A region that can feed itself, fuel itself and move goods efficiently within its own borders is a region that negotiates from a position of strength. 

The Window Will Not Stay Open 

The reorganization of global trade will happen whether we are ready or not. Cargo goes where it moves fastest and cheapest. If our ports remain congested and our inland logistics remain expensive, that cargo will find other routes, and the opportunity will pass us by. 

The decisions that matter are not complicated to identify: legal certainty for port concessions, investment in storage close to the ports, real intermodal alternatives and regional coordination. What they require is urgency and the willingness of governments and the private sector to act on them together. Latin America has been called a region of potential for too long. This time, we have the chance to prove it. But only if we prepare before the moment arrives, not after.